Nintendo has released what many analysts are describing as a "cautious" sales forecast for the upcoming Switch 2, projecting 15 million units sold during its current fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The console is set to launch globally on June 5, with Nintendo also anticipating 45 million game sales in that same period.
The forecast assumes that the U.S. tariff rates implemented on April 10 remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, Nintendo acknowledged that any adjustments to these tariffs could impact its projections. “We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions,” the company stated in its financial report.
Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million unit target as “conservative,” suggesting that Nintendo is likely accounting for uncertainty around tariffs, pricing, and production delays—despite strong pre-order momentum. He added that the company may revise its forecast upward if the tariff situation improves. “However, the main issue right now is the knock-on effects already in motion, creating a difficult environment for a console launch. Not to mention the threat of increased tariffs,” Ahmad noted.
It’s worth highlighting that if the Switch 2 reaches 15 million sales within its first year, it would be one of the most successful console launches in history—surpassing the original Switch's first-year total of 14.87 million units sold.
See Results — Demand for the Switch 2 appears to be massive. Following a delay attributed to tariff-related complications, pre-orders officially opened on April 24, with the console priced at $449.99 — and consumer response was largely in line with expectations. Additionally, Nintendo has issued a notice to U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, warning that delivery by the release date cannot be guaranteed due to overwhelming demand.
For more information, check out IGN's Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.
